India and Pakistan: How
treaties prevent the rivalry from devolving into war
As tensions between India and
Pakistan peaked during Pulwama crisis in February, the two nuclear-armed power
managed to retreat from the brink of war. Aakriti Tandon (Daemen College) and
Michael O. Slobodchikoff (Troy University) explain how the emergence of a
cooperative rivalry through the use of treaties could function as a way to help
the two countries deescalate conflicts and avoid war.
India
and Pakistan have been a hot topic in the media as well as in policy circles
since the February 14, 2019 terror attack in Pulwama,
Kashmir that led
to the death of 44 Indian paramilitary soldiers. India blamed Pakistan for providing
funding, training, arms, resources and a safe haven to Jaish-e-Mohammed, the terrorist
group that claimed responsibility for the attack. India launched airstrikes on
a militant training camp in Balakot, located in the Pakistani province of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa on February 29. Pakistan retaliated with airstrikes against Indian
military installments in Kashmir, downing an Indian fighter jet and capturing
the pilot. This is the first time that either side has aerially crossed into
the territory of the other since the 1971 war that resulted in the liberation
of Bangladesh. While both sides continue to be involved in numerous militarised
disputes near the Line of Control (LoC) in the disputed territory of Kashmir,
the launch of airstrikes constituted major escalation between the nuclear-armed
neighbors. While the airstrikes were a major escalation, the conflict did not
escalate into war between the states as has often happened in the past. In
fact, in an unexpected move, Pakistan decided to return the
captured Indian pilot to India, leading to rapid de-escalation of tensions between
the rivals. Pakistan’s actions provided an avenue for the two states
to de-escalate the crisis and return to the status quo.
Why nuclear weapons
don’t explain de-escalation
Pakistan’s
active pursuit of de-escalation vis-à-vis India can be attributed to several
factors including the deterrence effects of nuclear weapons possessed by both
states, a weak Pakistani economy that could collapse under the strain of war
with India, pressure from external actors such as the United States, the UN and
others as well as the timing of domestic electoral politics in India. While
these arguments are crucial in understanding the Indo-Pakistan rivalry, they do
not discuss the impact of institutions on the onset as well as recurrence of
conflict. The existing network of bilateral treaties may be a means for the two
states to manage their conflict. This argument explains the current
de-escalation pursued by India and Pakistan at different points in the rivalry,
which has prevented the breakout of war since the 1999 Kargil conflict.
Treaty network
analysis
Treaty network analysis allows scholars the opportunity to
not only identify how the treaties interact to create a regional order, but
also to identify specific lodestone treaties,
which serve as the foundation for all of the other treaties within the
relationship. Treaty networks can also help illuminate the strength of a
bilateral relationship and the likelihood that the relationship between two
states would devolve into violent conflict – states with a high levels of
treaty nesting are less likely to fight wars against each other.
Treaty
nesting is a diplomatic technique that states use to tie treaties to previous
treaties, thus strengthening cooperation between states. Since violating a
treaty that is tied to other treaties is paramount to violating all treaties
that are tied together, using treaty nesting as a
diplomatic tool is an effective way in which to build cooperation even among
traditional rivals.
India and Pakistan have signed a
total of 44 bilateral treaties between 1947 and 2017.. Treaty A is considered to be
nested under Treaty B (or have a tie with it) if it explicitly makes a
reference to the earlier treaty within its text. A relationship is considered
to have institutionalised cooperation when the total number of ties in the
relationship is equal to or greater than the total number of bilateral treaties
between the two states. It is considered to have ad-hoc cooperation when the
total number of ties is less than the total number of bilateral treaties
between the two states. Thus, by dividing the number of treaty ties by the
number of treaties, one can determine the level of institutionalised
cooperation within the dyads.
Beginning
in the 1980s, India and Pakistan have been attempting to link new treaties to
existing bilateral or multilateral arrangements thereby creating a dense
network of ties. States that violate a nested treaty are not only violating a
single treaty, but all other treaties that are linked to it. By nesting
treaties, states increase the costs of violating a single treaty, thereby
reducing the probability of treaty violation. By enhancing the probability of
cooperation, treaty nestedness is likely to build trust in a bilateral
relationship. While India and Pakistan are enduring rivals, they also continue
to abide by many of the treaties they have signed. In the figure below, we show how these
treaties are tied together. Each treaty
is a square in the figure, and the size of the square indicates the importance
of the treaty to the relationship.
Figure 1: Indo-Pak
Treaty Network Map 1960-2017
Using
cooperation scores below Table 1, we can
see that the India-Pakistan cooperation score is 0.4 in 1970 and jumps to 0.96
in 1980. The score hovers at the 0.88 level for a few years before climbing
again in 2010 and crossing the threshold of 1 in 2011. Thus, we see a
significant shift in the overall levels of treaty making and nesting between
India and Pakistan in the 1970s. In 1971, India’s support for the East
Pakistan’s quest for independence led to India and Pakistan fighting a war.
India’s support for the successful Bangladeshi liberation movement soured
diplomatic ties between the two neighbors. After the end of the war, the two
countries created a series of treaties to address bilateral relations,
including the landmark Simla Agreement of 1972. The two countries also signed
treaties for the resumption of trade, reset visa requirements, as well as
resume telegraph and postal exchanges. As India and Pakistan attempted to
restore diplomatic and functional ties in the aftermath of the second war
between them, they created a number of nested treaties. While the network of
treaties has not reduced or eliminated cross border violence between India and
Pakistan, it does demonstrate the ability of states to find pockets of
cooperation that can eventually spill over into other issue areas, thereby
enhancing mutual cooperation. For instance, even as the cross-border conflict
unfolded, India and Pakistani diplomats were holding joint discussions to
provide Indian pilgrims access to the Kartarpur Sikh shrine located inside
Pakistan.
Table 1: Cooperation
Scores in the Indo-Pakistan dyad*
Year
|
India-Pakistan
Cooperation Score
|
1950
|
0
|
1960
|
0.4
|
1970
|
0.4
|
1980
|
0.96
|
1990
|
0.87
|
2000
|
0.88
|
2010
|
0.94
|
2011
|
1.02
|
2017
|
1.02
|
India
and Pakistan are currently in a transitory phase between ad-hoc (weak) cooperation
and institutionalised (strong) cooperation. They barely cross the threshold of
1 in 2011, suggesting they are on the cusp of becoming ‘cooperating rivals’ i.e
they are enduring rivals who have institutionalised cooperation to the point of
developing conflict management capabilities that prevent the recurrence of
violent conflict.
Cooperative rivalry
While
the number of ceasefire violations (CFVs) between India and Pakistan has risen
dramatically over the past few years, these heightened tensions have not
escalated to a full-blown war between the nuclear-armed neighbors. The
increased levels of cooperation through treaties and the use of treaty nesting
in the Indo-Pakistani relationship may be serving a conflict management
function by preventing CFV’s from escalating into violent militarised conflict.
An
analysis of India- Pakistan treaties suggests that the two states are on the
cusp of strengthened cooperation and are transitioning from a more traditional
rivalry in which the states have often fought several wars to more of a
“cooperative rivalry” in which the rival states create a high enough level of
cooperation that enables them to resolve disputes before they escalate into war.
Given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, it is extremely important
that India and Pakistan continue to tie future cooperation efforts to prior
successful treaties to avoid potential disputes escalating into militarised
conflict.
Should
India and Pakistan continue to cooperate through treaties in areas that mutually
benefit both states and tie those treaties to prior treaties, then it is likely
that India and Pakistan will be able to effectively manage their rivalry and
prevent the rivalry from devolving into war.
However a failure to do so may result in the return of traditional
rivalry in which war is a distinct possibility.
