On January 20, 1977 Jimmy Carter took the oath of office to
become the 39th President of the United States. However, when Carter—a one-term governor from
Georgia—announced his bid for the presidency on December 12, 1974, very few
Americans had any idea who he was. The Atlanta Constitution (now The Atlanta Journal-Constitution),
Carter’s hometown newspaper, ran a story after Carter’s entrance into the race
entitled, “Jimmy Who?” Despite the fact
that very few people knew who he was and there were 11 other candidates already
in the race, Carter threw his hat into the ring, traveled to 40 different
states and stopped in more than 250 cities across the country. He put more effort into campaigning in Iowa
than any of the other candidates in the race and ended up finishing at the top
of the pack with 27% of the vote. He
used this surprise victory to propel him to victory in New Hampshire and
ultimately the nomination. Jimmy Carter
thus demonstrated the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire in the nominating
process. Winning early helps candidates
building momentum—or “Big Mo” according to George H. W. Bush—which helps
candidates demonstrate viability and electability to potential voters.
Jimmy Carter greets voters at the Iowa State Fair in 1976. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/01/29/iowa-caucuses-history-jimmy-carter-julian-zelizer/79426692/ |
Gary Hart was in his second term in the U.S.
Senate when he decided to throw his hat in the ring for the 1984 Democratic
nomination. Hart was polling around 1%
in national polls, falling behind well-known Democrats Walter Mondale, John
Glenn, and Jesse Jackson. To combat his
low approval numbers, Hart hit the ground in New Hampshire, making multiple
stops and conducting various canvassing events throughout the entire
state. Hart managed to win 16% of the
vote in Iowa, losing to Mondale by 33%.
However, two weeks later, Hart defeated Mondale by 10% in New Hampshire
thanks to his ground game in the state.
Hart ultimately lost the nomination race, while Carter was able to
win. Nonetheless, New Hampshire made
Hart a viable candidate, with him and Mondale volleying wins back and forth
until June. Without Hart’s surprise win
in New Hampshire, Mondale likely would have wrapped up the nomination very
quickly.
Gary Hart celebrates his New Hampshire primary win in 1984. https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/05/gary-hart-campaign-yankee-thrift-saved-day/KCqdyFoDNxaz7rtemukNDN/story.html |
So, what is it about Iowa and New Hampshire that help us
select our presidents? Surprise victors
generally end up looking more viable and electable than many voters originally
thought. These surprise winners are also
rewarded with more media attention and more donations, helping them compete
more strongly in upcoming contests.
While Iowa and New Hampshire are not perfect predictors for who the
eventual nominee will be, they help candidates make a name for themselves,
especially if that candidate is not well known to begin with.
1 comment:
Dr. Wendland,
Thanks for putting the primaries into perspective. I look forward to your analysis in future blogs . . . this election year needs some explaining!
Dr. Wise
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